The San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers both won their National Football League (NFL) wild card playoff games on Sunday, while the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints also advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs, with wins on Saturday. The only home team to win out of the 4 games was the Indianapolis Colts, and they had to come back from 28 points down to do it.
Let’s start with the first game of wild card weekend. The Colts took on the Kansas City Chiefs. Since the Colts won the American Football Conference (AFC) South division, and the Chiefs didn’t win their West division, even though both teams were 11-5, the game was played in Indianapolis. The Chiefs jumped out to a 24-7 lead early in the 2nd quarter, due to an interception thrown by Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck, and also a fumble. They even scored a touchdown late in the 2nd quarter, and early in the 3rd quarter to take a 38-10 lead.
It was looking bleak for the Colts, even though Luck has brought them back in several games over his 2 years in the NFL, but 28 points? It seemed like the Colts defense couldn’t surrender another point to even have a chance. They did get much better in the second half, but it was Luck and receiver T.Y. Hilton that did most of the damage. Luck finished the game with 443 yards passing, and 4 touchdowns, to go along with his 3 interceptions. Hilton accounted for 224 of those yards, and 2 of the touchdowns.
With 21 points in the 3rd quarter and 14 points in the 4th quarter, the Colts took the lead late in the game and held off the Chiefs’ last drive, to win 45-44. So after the 38-10 start, the Colts outscored the Chiefs 35-6. Indianapolis overcame a -3 turnover ratio, and a great game by Chiefs’ quarterback Alex Smith, who threw for 378 yards, with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. This was the 2nd biggest postseason comeback in NFL history, behind only the Buffalo Bills stunning 32-point comeback in 1993 against the Houston Oilers.
In the later game on Saturday, the Saints won their first postseason road game ever, beating the National Football Conference (NFC) East winning Philadelphia Eagles 26-24. Despite a rather pedestrian game by Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints took a 20-7 lead in the 3rd quarter. But they fell behind by a 24-23 with 4:54 remaining, on a touchdown reception by tight end Zach Ertz from Eagle quarterback Nick Foles, who led the NFL in passer rating this year.
The Saints drove deep into Eagle territory so Shayne Graham could kick the winning 32-yard field goal with no time remaining. Just like the Colts-Chiefs game, the winner was the team that committed more turnovers (Saints-2, Eagles-0). Before Saturday, the team that had at least a minus 2 turnover ratio in a playoff game was 4-133. On Saturday, those teams were 2-0. Also, like the earlier game, the quarterback with the higher passer rating lost (Foles-105.0, Brees-75.7). It just goes to show you that while the quarterback is the key player, and turnovers are important, they aren’t everything.
On Sunday, the Chargers went to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The Chargers were the 6th seeded team in the AFC, and the Bengals had won the AFC North division. Other than Charger fans, few people gave San Diego much of a chance, but turnovers were big in this game. Despite throwing for 334 yards, Bengal quarterback Andy Dalton tossed 2 interceptions and also fumbled. The Chargers made them pay for these mistakes.
The underdog Chargers won going away 27-10, despite only 128 yards on 12 of 16 passing by their quarterback Phillip Rivers. They did rush for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bengals finished with 4 turnovers, while the Chargers had zero. A good running game, along with solid quarterback play, combined with a +4 turnover ratio, will get it done just about every time.
The final game of wild card playoff weekend was between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers. The game was played in Green Bay even though the Packers were only 8-7-1, and the 49ers were 12-4. This is because the Packers won the NFC North division, and the 49ers were a wild card. The game was played with the temperature at 5 degrees, and slowly dropping. Even so, the weather didn’t seem to affect the game. The game was close throughout, with the Packers tying the game at 20 with 5:06 remaining.
The way that the 49ers were moving the ball, it looked like settling for a field goal on that drive might spell doom for the Packers. The 49ers mostly ran the ball on their final drive to use up time, most successfully with their quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who finished with 98 yards rushing on just 7 carries, to go along with 227 passing yards in the game. This drive ran out the clock, and ended with a 33-yard Phil Dawson field goal to win the game 23-20. Kaepernick is now 3-0 against the Packers and their quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The NFL divisional playoff round will start on Saturday with the Saints playing the top seed in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks. These teams played on December 2nd in Seattle, and the Seahawks delivered a severe 34-7 beating to the Saints. Look for a similar result, but probably not by a 27-point margin.
The later game on Saturday will be the Colts visiting the New England Patriots. These teams did not play during the year. But don’t expect any late-game heroics from Luck in cold New England. I expect Patriot quarterback Tom Brady to show Luck how things are done in the playoffs.
On Sunday, the early game will feature the 49ers going on the road to play the Carolina Panthers. This is a rematch of the game won by the Panthers on November 10th in San Francisco 10-9. Look for the 49ers to exact revenge, as Panther quarterback Cam Newton melts under the playoff pressure, whether he thinks he’s Superman or not.
The final game of the divisional playoff weekend has 2 teams very familiar with each other facing off. The Chargers go to Denver to play the Broncos for the 3rd time this season. They each won on the road, with the Chargers beating Denver 27-20. This is my upset special. The Chargers will win their 6th straight game, by knocking Bronco quarterback Peyton Manning out of the playoffs, like they did a few times when he was on the Colts.
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